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Messages - bluejaysfan777

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MLB Discussion / Re: MLB Off-Season Discussion
« on: December 08, 2014, 04:07:38 pm »
Jays interested in adding Greg Holland, if he's made available. They realize this (and maybe next) year will be their only shot for potentially a decade. Props to AA on going all in.
I like the idea of it, but it's going to cost WAY too much.

We do need a closer though.

I agree, but I think we can find somebody that is much less costly.

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MLB Discussion / Re: MLB Off-Season Discussion
« on: December 08, 2014, 09:34:40 am »
Jays interested in adding Greg Holland, if he's made available. They realize this (and maybe next) year will be their only shot for potentially a decade. Props to AA on going all in.
I like the idea of it, but it's going to cost WAY too much.

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MLB Discussion / Re: Jays trade Brett Lawrie!
« on: November 30, 2014, 01:56:10 pm »
They are both top 5 defensive 3rd baseman, but Donaldson is A LOT better offensively. I'm personally high on Barreto, I think he's going to be very good, but hey if those guys are successful in Oakland I'll be fine, because Oakland is my second favourite team.

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MLB Discussion / Re: MLB Lineup with No Americans?
« on: November 18, 2014, 05:17:54 pm »
They (likely) got their 2B. The guy they got from Detroit already projects to be a league average player. Maybe Steamer is just high on him, but they've got a guy that looks to not be horrible.

Yeah, my guess is they will platoon Izturis and Travis, unless Goins has an amazing spring training.

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MLB Discussion / Re: MLB Lineup with No Americans?
« on: November 18, 2014, 03:46:48 pm »
Assuming that they've prioritizing a 2B over Melky, that will not happen.

It's most likely
1. Relief Pitching
2. Melky
3. 2nd base

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MLB Discussion / Re: MLB Lineup with No Americans?
« on: November 18, 2014, 09:49:52 am »
agreed. he's asking 4 years, $64 million which Toronto can't afford plus with the signing of Martin, they lost their 1st round draft selection. if another team signs Cabrera, they'll get that 1st round pick back

The report I saw said he was only seeking 50 mil, reguardless, would the Jays there own first round pick back?

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MLB Discussion / Re: MLB Lineup with No Americans?
« on: November 18, 2014, 09:35:53 am »
Odds are pretty limited they can afford Melky and Russell.

That's true, but even then they could sign Aoki and it would still work.

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MLB Discussion / MLB Lineup with No Americans?
« on: November 18, 2014, 08:49:54 am »
Has there ever been a lineup with no Americans in it? Let's just say the Blue Jays re-sign Melky and keep Navarro, their lineup could look like this:

1. Jose Reyes, Dominican
2. Melky Cabrera, Dominican
3. Jose Bautista, Dominican
4. Edwin Encarnacion, Dominican
5. Russell Martin, Canadian
6. Brett Lawrie, Canadian
7. Dioner Navarro, Venezuelan
8. Macier Izturis, Venezuelan
9. Dalton Pompey, Canadian


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MLB Discussion / Re: 2014 MLB Silver Sluggers
« on: November 16, 2014, 05:04:16 pm »
Here's my post from SBT:

A refresher on this award: The Silver Slugger Award is awarded annually to the best offensive player at each position in both the American League and the National League, as determined by the coaches and managers of Major League Baseball (MLB). NOTE: outfield is inclusive, so all three winners could conceivably play the same field (left, center, or right). These voters consider several offensive categories in selecting the winners, including batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage, in addition to "coaches' and managers' general impressions of a player's overall offensive value". Managers and coaches are not permitted to vote for players on their own team.

My take:

C: Gomes and Posey seem right (Lucroy and Mesoraco would win easily if either were in the AL)
1B: Abreu for sure -- is the Miguel Cabrera era over? Frankly, Rizzo was a better hitter than Gonzalez in 2014 (so were Freeman, Morneau, and Duda for that matter), but these voters all drool over RBI.
2B: You could make a case for Cano, but Altuve deserved it more, if just for the steals. Walker is the clear winner in a very weak NL field.
3B: Donaldson tapered off in the second half, leaving the door open for a more deserving Beltre; Rendon is the correct choice in the NL.
SS: I can't argue with Ramirez or Desmond (Peralta might), but I do wonder where those power-hitting shortstops of yesteryear have gone?
OF: The voters nailed it with Trout, Bautista, and Brantley in the AL (sorry, Cruz). As for the NL, McCutcheon and Stanton for sure. Upton over Gomez? I'm having a lot of trouble with that.
DH: The only choice, really, was Martinez, though Ortiz had a pretty good year for an old guy.
P: Who cares? But for those who do, Bumgarner is the clear choice.

Really? Reyes was pretty clearly better offensively.

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MLB Discussion / Re: Other MLB Awards
« on: November 14, 2014, 11:28:04 pm »
Abreu was a equal hitting 1B - you really put him above Trout? Trout is still the best position player in baseball by a fairly wide margin, and the fact that he regressed a lot doesn't change that at all - that's just how much better he was than anyone else on the face of the planet.

Let's consider this: Trout's wRC+ was still essentially the highest in baseball (168 for Cutch, 167 for Trout). By OPS+, he was 3rd - just 4% behind Abreu (difference there is OPS values OBP and SLG equally, wRC values OBP about 2/3 to SLG 1/3). And while his defensive metrics have gone down each season, they're far from definitive -  his scouting metrics (yes, those exist) have gone up. He's still reaching the same "routine" plays. His rate of making "likely" plays has gone up each season since 2012, his "even" plays are also trending up, and his "unlikely" plays are literally exactly in line with his career average. The only difference is that his "remote" plays have trended down.*

According to UZR, his range dropped by nearly 10 runs in a season, though his range factor ((PO + A)/GP) has increased each season he's been in the league and the scouts think his general ability on reasonable plays has gone up as well. I'm not saying he's a great fielder, but considering him a below average fielder is probably a little unfair - I would say he's an average defender, and there are a few metrics that support that.

One idea suggested by Tony Blengino (former scout/metrics guy for the M's, now working for fangraphs) is that a more accurate version of WAR is to take a 3 year average of the defensive numbers instead of just a single season. Going by this, Trout's defensive value jumps from -8.4 to +2.6 - and his WAR jumps from 7.8 to 8.9 wins. That's still a decent drop from 10.1 and 10.5 in 2012 and 2013, respectively, but it's not like Trout is no longer incredible. He's still a top 2-3 hitter, a good base runner, and (probably) an average defender.

If you think his defense really dropped by 10 runs in one year, then he's the best position player by a full win (7.8 for Trout, 6.8 for Cutch). If you think his defense is probably more average than the 2014 metrics suggest, he's the best position player by two full wins - and the best player in baseball by a win (7.9 RA9-WAR for Kershaw, 8.9 for Trout).**


* Scale for Inside Edge Fielding (in terms of percent of players that make a play)
- Routine 90-100%
- Likely 60-90%
- Even 40-60%
- Unlikely 10-40%
- Remote 1-10%
- Impossible - 0%

**I know WAR isn't the end all, be all - but it's really easy to use at 1 in the morning. If you really want me to go into his other aspects without WAR in the morning, I will.

Basically what I meant was his season, based on more basic stats, was one of the worst MVP season in a while his .287 average is the worst for an AL MVP since Harmon Killebrew in 1969, I'm not trying to say he shouldn't have won it, but it was not worthy of a unanimous win. I would say that it's actually Stanton that is the best position player in baseball.

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MLB Discussion / Re: Other MLB Awards
« on: November 13, 2014, 10:14:38 pm »
It's possible he's still the best, but he's regressed big time in 2014. Lower BA/OBP/SLUG/WAR. His defensive metrics have been getting worse. His speed game basically disappeared despite the fact that he still stole at a solid rate. Made significantly less contact. Atrocious performance in his only playoff series.

Right now for me Trout would be 3rd or maybe fourth, behind Kershaw, Stanton, and maybe Abreu.

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MLB Discussion / Re: Other MLB Awards
« on: November 13, 2014, 10:10:44 pm »
His season was defenitly not worthy of a unanimous MVP.

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MLB Discussion / Re: Comeback
« on: November 09, 2014, 10:15:35 pm »
McGehee was defenitely a good choice IMO.

I disagree about Young though, I think guys like Melky or even Pujols would have been a better choice.

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MLB Discussion / Re: 2014 MLB Silver Sluggers
« on: November 07, 2014, 10:44:49 am »
Personally I would've given the SS Silver slugger to Reyes, better average, OBP, OPS,SB, hits, walks, runs and wRC+ all in 15 less games.

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MLB Discussion / 2014 MLB Silver Sluggers
« on: November 06, 2014, 06:05:48 pm »
NATIONAL LEAGUE:
OF Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
OF Justin Upton, Braves
OF Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
1B Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers
3B Anthony Rendon, Nationals
SS Ian Desmond, Nationals
C Buster Posey, Giants
P Madison Bumgarner, Giants
2B Neil Walker, Pirates

AMERICAN LEAGUE:
2B Jose Altuve, Astros
1B Jose Abreu, White Sox
DH Victor Martinez, Tigers
3B Adrian Beltre, Rangers
OF Mike Trout, Angels
OF Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
OF Michael Brantley, Indians
SS Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
C Yan Gomes, Indians

Thoughts? Any Snubs?

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